UFC 313 Pereira vs Ankalaev prediction (Prediction Post)



I have been anticipating this fight from the moment Alex Pereira became the light heavyweight champion at UFC 295 in November of 2023, and on March 8th, 2025, it finally occurs. To be fully transparent, Alex Pereira is maybe my favorite fighter in the sport today, and I have been a fan of his for his entire UFC career. However, I recognize this fight is likely to be his toughest test in the promotion, at least on paper. My prediction for this fight is a decision victory for Magomed Ankalaev.

Before I talk about why I think Magomed will win this fight, I want to make it clear that while I am picking Magomed to win, I am not very confident in this prediction and think this fight is nearly a coin flip on who wins. Ankalaev is considered Pereira’s toughest test mainly due to his wrestling background and ability, however that is not entirely what leads me to pick him to win. Alex Pereira has the most dangerous leg kicks in the sport today, and Magomed has shown a lack of ability to defend them across his recent fights. This was especially evident in his last and only other title opportunity against Jan Blachowicz, where he only began to wrestle after having both of his legs battered for three rounds to the point he could hardly stand. This is something that has held true throughout Magomed’s career; he only tries to wrestle if he is given a reason by taking too much damage striking his feet. Alex, while improving between each fight, is still not near the level of grappling that Magomed is capable of, so while he may not use it immediately, Magomed will likely be able find success grappling with Alex.

The other reason I am predicting Magomed to win is how he and Alex match up striking wise. Firstly, Alex is 37 years old, meaning his eventual decline in ability due to age is coming sooner rather than later, although he has yet to show any signs of it yet. Even though he has not diminished yet, things can change very quickly in combat sports and age can begin to show itself in any fight.

Alex Pereira is the best striker in the division. He has many accolades, and championship wins in kickboxing outside of the UFC, and inside he has used his striking to win ten of eleven fights, against some of the best strikers in the 185 and 205-pound weight divisions. Across his UFC fights, I have noticed 3 things that have led to success striking against him, those being a southpaw stance, straight punches, and pushing forward. Magomed Ankalaev has displayed an ability to do all three of those things, as he is primarily a striker and not a wrestler like many fans believe. Alex also has a very unique defense that mainly relies on backing up and deflecting or parrying punches away while trying to roll with any that do land. Alex also has a harder time landing leg kicks on fighters who have a southpaw stance because of how he throws them.

To keep things simple, I will end here. I will be rooting for Alex Pereira to win this fight, and while I think it is definitely possible, I think the striking ability of Magomed Ankalaev along with his ability to use wrestling if necessary, will pose too great of a challenge for Alex, and will lead to Magomed Ankalaev winning a close decision to win the light heavyweight championship.











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