UFC 316 Reaction

Editor's note: This blog was created for a school project and therefore was subject to a bunch of requirements surrounding the content on it such as all the promotion of products (ignore all of those, I will eventually remove them). That project is finished, so now everything posted on here is subject to no restrictions. Expect a lot more opinion and less formality. Same general content with predictions, reactions, etc. with less of a focus on my own training (as I am still terrible). Everything posted before this is only being kept up as an archive for my own sake, it can just be ignored. I am now doing this for fun instead of for a grade which will hopefully lead to me doing this for a while longer.

I will be discussing the main card of UFC 316 and some of the prelims and give my reactions to each fight.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

Prediction: O'Malley KO in round 3

Result: Dvalishvili submission in round 3

Merab finally got another finish. I was under the impression that Merab was almost zero finishing threat, and while that is for the most part still true, I did not expect him to get one here whatsoever. I picked Sean to win the first fight at UFC 306, and I was even more confident that he would win here, especially if he was injured in that fight and he made improvements while Merab didn't. The fight started off strong with Sean moving forward, but after about a minute he started backing up and never took another step forward. I liked the front kicks to the body from Sean, as they were very successful in the first fight, but his lack of combinations and pressure with his hands carried over from the first fight. Sean did a better job defending the grappling of Merab, but Merab was so much more relentless than he was in the first fight. I believe that Merab has the best cardio of any athlete ever, or at minimum in combat sports, and some of the grappling exchanges in the second and third round would gas out anyone else on earth. But not Merab. His pace in the third round was absolutely ridiculous, he had a potential arm triangle but didn't threaten it, and he ended up getting a ninja choke as Sean tried to stand up from his knees. 

I do not know if anyone will beat Merab other than father time, as he is nearly 35 and can't keep this level of cardio forever. Sandhagen should be next, and I want to pick him, but Merab keeps making me look stupid every time I pick against him. I still don't think his striking is that good but his takedowns I actually think are improving, especially his entries. Unless he gets caught (which I keep predicting will happen for some reason) I don't think he's dropping the belt anytime soon. He is also officially the 135 goats in my opinion.

Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison

Prediction: Harrison TKO in round 2

Result: Harrison submission in round 2

Not much to say about this, as it went almost exactly like I thought it would. I think the narrative that Julianna would finish her late after Kayla gassed out to be logically sound, but ridiculous to actually predict. Because of the massive weight cut, Kayla would have gassed had the fight gone into the later rounds, but Julianna presents a very minimal threat other than being super tough. Kayla does not have the greatest striking, and I don't like that her takedowns rely heavily on clinching and judo throws, but she is way to strong it was obvious that she would easily control Pena if she got her to the ground. Nunes vs Harrison is next, and it's actually a great fight at 135 which is almost completely dead. 

Joe Pyfer vs Kelvin Gastelum

Prediction: Pyfer decision

Result: Pyfer decision

I don't think this was a 30-27 like one judge scored it, but Joe won the first and second rounds to me. I really wish Joe would throw more combinations and set up his big shots a bit more. He has insane power but spent the entire fight (especially the second and third) looking for one big shot. A bit more output and setup and I think he finished Kelvin. In regard to Kelvin, I have a hard time taking him seriously after the whole weight incident with D-rod, so I don't know what he does next or if I will ever pick him against someone who I think is above average. 

Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix

Prediction: Bautista decision

Result: Bautista decision

I don't know if I will ever like Mario after that Aldo fight considering Aldo is one of my favorite fighters of all time, but it was insane how much he was being counted out in this fight and how much Patchy was being overrated especially his striking. Had this fight gone to the ground and Mix had a few minutes to work, he would have submitted Mario, but it never got there. Mario completely pieced up Patchy who looked like he was frozen solid. If you watched back Patchy's fights (especially his last one against Magomedov), he never really moves much on the feet and never takes his head off the center line. I figured Mario would clinch him and try to prevent Mix from pressuring him and pushing grappling, but he never had to worry about grappling because Mix basically never tried to grapple outside of a single takedown attempt. It really frustrates me when I see grapplers who either strike an entire fight with mid striking, or don't have the takedowns to actually get the fight to their best area. Mix needs to fight someone at the bottom of the rankings or lower, it sucks that he lost to someone as unremarkable as Mario with all the hype he had, but he needs to work on some things. I think he will look much better in his next fight though, and he is only 31 so he has time to get better. Mario should get a 5 round fight next, probably against Song Yadong or Chito.

Vincente Luque vs Kevin Holland

Prediction: Luque decision

Result: Holland submission in round 2

Locked in Kevin Holland at 170 is something I have hoped to see for the past few years, as at 185 he's undersized and just doesn't take things as seriously as he should because he cuts almost no weight. I was hoping we would see a d'arce choke considering both fighters really like that submission (and it's my best submission), but we saw, and anaconda choke instead that everyone just called a d'arce anyway. Kevin called out Colby Covington, which hopefully they make next as that's as close to a free ranked win in the division as you can get, and I want to see how far Kevin can go if he takes this seriously. Luque looked ok here, but I can't enjoy his fights like I once could after hearing how badly he was hurt after the Geoff Neal fight.  

Prelims

• Joshua Van- Looked incredible, completely dominated Silva who has proven to be a dangerous finisher in the division. Sky is the limit for Van, but I hope he doesn't rush things too much because he is so young. I don't want him to end up in a situation when he is 29 with a deteriorated chin because he got pushed too fast and took too much damage from the top of the division

• Joo Sang Yoo- Incredible first round KO. I don't think he will make it to be championship level, but I am certainly more interested in his next fight.

• Andreas Gustafsson- He may lack defense, but he does not lack pressure. Unbelievably high pace from him here, that genuinely made me rethink how I have rated this guy. I think he gets caught and finished eventually, but this was a very impressive performance.